Suchergebnisse

In this paper we describe the structure of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and data that enables estimation of certain policy changes in Croatia. Namely, we build a 5-sector (households, firms, government, investors and foreigners) economy model while our economy is disaggregated on three highly aggregated sectors. Afterwards, we present Croatian data which enables us to simulate the model in Nadoveza, Sekur and Penava (upcoming). These data are seen as snapshot of established equilibrium in 2010 in Croatia and they represent the main input for the CGE models. Finally, we conduct the reality check of our calibrated parameters.

Ovaj rad analizira učinke nekonvencionalnih mjera monetarne politike Europske centralne banke (ECB) na nejednakost i (re)distribuciju dohotka u odabranim zemljama članicama eurozone. Pritom je rad fokusiran na empirijsko utvrđivanje učinaka nekonvencionalnih mjera monetarne politike ECB-a na odabrani skup makroekonomskih i financijskih indikatora za koje se smatra da imaju implikacije na (re)distribuciju dohotka, te na Gini koeficijent kao temeljnu mjeru ekonomske nejednakosti. Empirijska analiza provedena je u dva koraka. U prvom koraku se na razini eurozone identificira šok monetarne politike ECB-a primjenom strukturnog vektorskog autoregresijskog modela (SVAR) s restrikcijama predznaka. U drugom koraku se identificirani šok monetarne politike ECB-a integrira u VAR modele pojedinačnih zemalja. Na temelju provedene analize zaključuje se da nekonvencionalne mjere monetarne politike ECB-a više povećavaju cijene dionica nego plaće u svim analiziranim zemljama. Uz pretpostavku da nadnice čine relativno veći udio u raspoloživom dohotku stanovništva slabijeg imovinskog stanja u odnosu na imućnije stanovništvo, temeljem ovih rezultata bi se moglo zaključiti da nekonvencionalne mjere ECB-a povećavaju nejednakosti unutar zemalja. Međutim, analiza učinaka monetarne politike ECB-a na nejednakosti mjerene Gini koeficijentom ne potvrđuje ovaj zaključak, ali ga ni ne opovrgava. Pritom je pozitivan efekt ekspanzivnog monetarnog šoka na dohotke od rada i kapitala kvantitativno veći u periferiji eurozone u odnosu na odabrane zemlje centra. Iako bi ovakav rezultat implicirao da nekonvencionalne mjere ECB-a doprinose smanjenju nejednakosti među analiziranim zemljama centra i periferije, u analizi se nailazi i na oprečne rezultate.

This paper examines the effects of lower labor tax burden in Croatia by using Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. It is a 5-sector (households, firms, government, investors and foreigners) model and economy is disaggregated on three highly aggregated sectors. One of the major advantages of CGE modeling is the evaluation of the overall effects of policy changes, shocks and reforms in the economy. We do this by lowering taxes on labor and simulating changes of all endogenous variables in the model simultaneously. Lastly, we provide sensitivity analysis results. Our results suggest that it is possible to encourage domestic production by reducing taxes on labor, but the potential effects on unemployment should be revised as to get more accurate estimates.

The general theory of twin deficits hypothesis does not consider specific
characteristics of domestic tax systems, i.e. whether the revenue side of the
budget is dominated by indirect or by direct taxes. The main hypothesis of
the paper is that in countries with fiscal systems dominated by indirect
taxes, the deterioration of the current account balance would imply higher
fiscal revenues due to larger imports and consumption. The hypothesis is
based on the characteristics of domestic tax systems of Bulgaria, Croatia,
Poland and Romania in which indirect tax revenues account for the majority of
total budget tax revenues. Results suggest that the co-movements of the
current account and the fiscal balance cannot be explained by the twin
deficit theory in countries with indirect tax-oriented systems. These results
imply that only the structural economic transformation and export orientation
of the economy may reverse the causality direction between two deficits.